An international review of the characteristics of viral nucleic acid-amplification testing (NAT) reveals a trend towards the use of smaller pool sizes and individual donation NAT.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Nucleic acid-amplification testing (NAT) is used for screening blood donations/donors for blood-borne viruses. We reviewed global viral NAT characteristics and NAT-yield confirmatory testing used by blood operators. MATERIALS AND METHODS: NAT characteristics and NAT-yield confirmatory testing used during 2019 was surveyed internationally by the International Society of Blood Transfusion Working Party Transfusion-Transmitted Infectious Diseases. Reported characteristics are presented herein. RESULTS: NAT was mainly performed under government mandate. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) NAT was performed on all donors and donation types, while selective testing was reported for West Nile virus, hepatitis E virus (HEV), and Zika virus. Individual donation NAT was used for HIV, HCV and HBV by ~50% of responders, while HEV was screened in mini-pools by 83% of responders performing HEV NAT. Confirmatory testing for NAT-yield samples was generally performed by NAT on a sample from the same donation or by NAT and serology on samples from the same donation and a follow-up sample. CONCLUSION: In the last decade, there has been a trend towards use of smaller pool sizes or individual donation NAT. We captured characteristics of NAT internationally in 2019 and provide insights into confirmatory testing approaches used for NAT-yields, potentially benefitting blood operators seeking to implement NAT.

Prediction of Ross River Virus Incidence Using Mosquito Data in Three Cities of Queensland, Australia.

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, with Queensland recording high incidence rates (with an annual average incidence rate of 0.05% over the last 20 years). Accurate prediction of RRV incidence is critical for disease management and control. Many factors, including mosquito abundance, climate, weather, geographical factors, and socio-economic indices, can influence the RRV transmission cycle and thus have potential utility as predictors of RRV incidence. We collected mosquito data from the city councils of Brisbane, Redlands, and Mackay in Queensland, together with other meteorological and geographical data. Predictors were selected to build negative binomial generalised linear models for prediction. The models demonstrated excellent performance in Brisbane and Redlands but were less satisfactory in Mackay. Mosquito abundance was selected in the Brisbane model and can improve the predictive performance. Sufficient sample sizes of continuous mosquito data and RRV cases were essential for accurate and effective prediction, highlighting the importance of routine vector surveillance for disease management and control. Our results are consistent with variation in transmission cycles across different cities, and our study demonstrates the usefulness of mosquito surveillance data for predicting RRV incidence within small geographical areas.

Temperature and transmission of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses: A systematic review of experimental studies on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

Mosquito-borne viruses are leading causes of morbidity and mortality in many parts of the world. In recent years, modelling studies have shown that climate change strongly influences vector-borne disease transmission, particularly rising temperatures. As a result, the risk of epidemics has increased, posing a significant public health risk. This review aims to summarize all published laboratory experimental studies carried out over the years to determine the impact of temperature on the transmission of arboviruses by the mosquito vector. Given their high public health importance, we focus on dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, which are transmitted by the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Following PRISMA guidelines, 34 papers were included in this systematic review. Most studies found that increasing temperatures result in higher rates of infection, dissemination, and transmission of these viruses in mosquitoes, although several studies had differing findings. Overall, the studies reviewed here suggest that rising temperatures due to climate change would alter the vector competence of mosquitoes to increase epidemic risk, but that some critical research gaps remain.

Next generation sequencing to identify iron status and individualise blood donors' experience.

BACKGROUND: Young adults form the majority of first-time blood donors to Australian Red Cross Lifeblood. However, these donors pose unique challenges for donor safety. Young blood donors, who are still undergoing neurological and physical development, have been found to have lower iron stores, and have higher risks of iron deficiency anaemia when compared to older adults and non-donors. Identifying young donors with higher iron stores may improve donor health and experience, increase donor retention, and reduce the burden on product donation. In addition, these measures could be used to individualise donation frequency. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Stored DNA samples from young male donors (18-25 years; No.=47) were sequenced using a custom panel of genes identified in the literature to be associated with iron homeostasis. The custom sequencing panel used in this study identified and reported variants to human genome version 19 (Hg19). RESULTS: 82 gene variants were analysed. Only one of which, rs8177181, was found to have a statistically significant (p<0.05) association with plasma ferritin level. Heterozygous alleles of this Transferrin gene variant, rs8177181T>A, significantly predicted a positive effect on ferritin levels (p=0.03). DISCUSSION: This study identified gene variants involved in iron homeostasis using a custom sequencing panel and analysed their association with ferritin levels in a young male blood donor population. Additional studies of factors associated with iron deficiency in blood donors are required if a goal of personalised blood donation protocols is to be achieved.

Prediction of Ross River virus incidence in Queensland, Australia: building and comparing models.

Transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) is influenced by climatic, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Accurate and robust predictions based on these factors are necessary for disease prevention and control. However, the complicated transmission cycle and the characteristics of RRV notification data present challenges. Studies to compare model performance are lacking. In this study, we used RRV notification data and exposure data from 2001 to 2020 in Queensland, Australia, and compared ten models (including generalised linear models, zero-inflated models, and generalised additive models) to predict RRV incidence in different regions of Queensland. We aimed to compare model performance and to evaluate the effect of statistical over-dispersion and zero-inflation of RRV surveillance data, and non-linearity of predictors on model fit. A variable selection strategy for screening important predictors was developed and was found to be efficient and able to generate consistent and reasonable numbers of predictors across regions and in all training sets. Negative binomial models generally exhibited better model fit than Poisson models, suggesting that over-dispersion in the data is the primary factor driving model fit compared to non-linearity of predictors and excess zeros. All models predicted the peak periods well but were unable to fit and predict the magnitude of peaks, especially when there were high numbers of cases. Adding new variables including historical RRV cases and mosquito abundance may improve model performance. The standard negative binomial generalised linear model is stable, simple, and effective in prediction, and is thus considered the best choice among all models.

An Outbreak of Japanese Encephalitis Virus in Australia; What Is the Risk to Blood Safety?

A widespread outbreak of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) was detected in mainland Australia in 2022 in a previous non-endemic area. Given JEV is known to be transfusion-transmissible, a rapid blood-safety risk assessment was performed using a simple deterministic model to estimate the risk to blood safety over a 3-month outbreak period during which 234,212 donors attended. The cumulative estimated incidence in donors was 82 infections with an estimated 4.26 viraemic components issued, 1.58 resulting in transfusion-transmission and an estimated risk of encephalitis of 1 in 4.3 million per component transfused over the risk period. Australia has initiated a robust public health response, including vector control, animal control and movement, and surveillance. Unlike West Nile virus, there is an effective vaccine that is being rolled-out to those at higher risk. Risk evaluation considered options such as restricting those potentially at risk to plasma for fractionation, which incorporates additional pathogen reduction, introducing a screening test, physicochemical pathogen reduction, quarantine, post donation illness policy changes and a new donor deferral. However, except for introducing a new deferral to potentially cover rare flavivirus risks, no option resulted in a clear risk reduction benefit but all posed threats to blood sufficiency or cost. Therefore, the blood safety risk was concluded to be tolerable without specific mitigations.

Past and future epidemic potential of chikungunya virus in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Australia is theoretically at risk of epidemic chikungunya virus (CHIKV) activity as the principal vectors are present on the mainland Aedes aegypti) and some islands of the Torres Strait (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus). Both vectors are highly invasive and adapted to urban environments with a capacity to expand their distributions into south-east Queensland and other states in Australia. We sought to estimate the epidemic potential of CHIKV, which is not currently endemic in Australia, by considering exclusively transmission by the established vector in Australia, Ae. aegypti, due to the historical relevance and anthropophilic nature of the vector. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We estimated the historical (1995-2019) epidemic potential of CHIKV in eleven Australian locations, including the Torres Strait, using a basic reproduction number equation. We found that the main urban centres of Northern Australia could sustain an epidemic of CHIKV. We then estimated future trends in epidemic potential for the main centres for the years 2020 to 2029. We also conducted uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the variables comprising the basic reproduction number and found high sensitivity to mosquito population size, human population size, impact of vector control and human infectious period. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: By estimating the epidemic potential for CHIKV transmission on mainland Australia and the Torres Strait, we identified key areas of focus for controlling vector populations and reducing human exposure. As the epidemic potential of the virus is estimated to rise towards 2029, a greater focus on control and prevention measures should be implemented in at-risk locations.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Ross River Virus in Queensland, 2001-2020.

Ross River virus (RRV), the most common human arbovirus infection in Australia, causes significant morbidity and substantial medical costs. About half of Australian cases occur in Queensland. We describe the spatial and temporal patterns of RRV disease in Queensland over the past two decades. RRV notifications, human population data, and weather data from 2001 to 2020 were analysed by the Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) area. Spatial interpolation or linear extrapolation were used for missing weather values and the estimated population in 2020, respectively. Notifications and incidence rates were analysed through space and time. During the study period, there were 43,699 notifications in Queensland. The highest annual number of notifications was recorded in 2015 (6182), followed by 2020 (3160). The average annual incidence rate was 5 per 10,000 people and the peak period for RRV notifications was March to May. Generally, SA2 areas in northern Queensland had higher numbers of notifications and higher incidence rates than SA2 areas in southern Queensland. The SA2 areas with high incidence rates were in east coastal areas and western Queensland. The timely prediction may aid disease prevention and routine vector control programs, and RRV management plans are important for these areas.

Neonatal Outcomes From Arboviruses in the Perinatal Period: A State-of-the-Art Review.

Since the 2016 Zika outbreak and the understanding of the teratogenic effect of this infection, there has been a newfound interest in arbovirus infections and their effects on pregnancy, resulting in numerous publications in the last 5 years. However, limited literature focuses on arbovirus infection in different stages of pregnancy and their effect on the neonate. There is currently no consensus management of perinatal acquisition of arboviruses, and current evidence is largely anecdotal observational reports. Teratogens can have different effects on the developing fetus depending on the time of infection, so infections during pregnancy should be analyzed by trimester. A better understanding of arbovirus infection in the perinatal period is required to assist obstetric, neonatal, and pediatric clinicians in making decisions about the management of mother and neonate. Our objective was to assess the evidence of adverse neonatal outcomes for several arboviral infections when contracted during the perinatal period to guide clinicians in managing these patients. There are 8 arboviruses for which neonatal outcomes from maternal acquisition in the perinatal period have been reported, with the most data for dengue and Chikungunya virus infections. The evidence reviewed in this article supports the adoption of preventive strategies to avoid ticks and mosquitoes close to the date of delivery. For the other arbovirus infections, further community-based cohort studies during outbreaks are required to evaluate whether these infections have a similar teratogenic impact.

Epidemiological models for predicting Ross River virus in Australia: A systematic review.

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common and widespread arbovirus in Australia. Epidemiological models of RRV increase understanding of RRV transmission and help provide early warning of outbreaks to reduce incidence. However, RRV predictive models have not been systematically reviewed, analysed, and compared. The hypothesis of this systematic review was that summarising the epidemiological models applied to predict RRV disease and analysing model performance could elucidate drivers of RRV incidence and transmission patterns. We performed a systematic literature search in PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Scopus for studies of RRV using population-based data, incorporating at least one epidemiological model and analysing the association between exposures and RRV disease. Forty-three articles, all of high or medium quality, were included. Twenty-two (51.2%) used generalised linear models and 11 (25.6%) used time-series models. Climate and weather data were used in 27 (62.8%) and mosquito abundance or related data were used in 14 (32.6%) articles as model covariates. A total of 140 models were included across the articles. Rainfall (69 models, 49.3%), temperature (66, 47.1%) and tide height (45, 32.1%) were the three most commonly used exposures. Ten (23.3%) studies published data related to model performance. This review summarises current knowledge of RRV modelling and reveals a research gap in comparing predictive methods. To improve predictive accuracy, new methods for forecasting, such as non-linear mixed models and machine learning approaches, warrant investigation.

Estimation of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission of Zika virus in Australia: Risks to blood transfusion safety.

BACKGROUND: Since 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks have occurred in the Americas and the Pacific involving mosquito-borne and sexual transmission. ZIKV has also emerged as a risk to global blood transfusion safety. Aedes aegypti, a mosquito well established in north and some parts of central and southern Queensland, Australia, transmits ZIKV. Aedes albopictus, another potential ZIKV vector, is a threat to mainland Australia. Since these conditions create the potential for local transmission in Australia and a possible uncertainty in the effectiveness of blood donor risk-mitigation programs, we investigated the possible impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission of ZIKV in Australia on local blood transfusion safety. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We estimated 'best-' and 'worst-' case scenarios of monthly reproduction number (R0) for both transmission pathways of ZIKV from 1996-2015 in 11 urban or regional population centres, by varying epidemiological and entomological estimates. We then estimated the attack rate and subsequent number of infectious people to quantify the ZIKV transfusion-transmission risk using the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool. For all scenarios and with both vector species R0 was lower than one for ZIKV transmission. However, a higher risk of a sustained outbreak was estimated for Cairns, Rockhampton, Thursday Island, and theoretically in Darwin during the warmest months of the year. The yearly estimation of the risk of transmitting ZIKV infection by blood transfusion remained low through the study period for all locations, with the highest potential risk estimated in Darwin. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Given the increasing demand for plasma products in Australia, the current strategy of restricting donors returning from infectious disease outbreak regions to source plasma collection provides a simple and effective risk management approach. However, if local transmission was suspected in the main urban centres of Australia, potentially facilitated by the geographic range expansion of Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus, this mitigation strategy would need urgent review.

No evidence for widespread Babesia microti transmission in Australia.

BACKGROUND: A fatal case of autochthonous Babesia microti infection was reported in Australia in 2012. This has implications for Australian public health and, given that babesiosis is transfusion transmissible, has possible implications for Australian blood transfusion recipients. We investigated the seroprevalence of antibodies to B. microti in Australian blood donors and in patients with clinically suspected babesiosis. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Plasma samples (n = 7,000) from donors donating in at-risk areas and clinical specimens from patients with clinically suspected babesiosis (n = 29) were tested for B. microti IgG by immunofluorescence assay (IFA). IFA initially reactive samples were tested for B. microti IgG and IgM by immunoblot and B. microti DNA by polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Although five donors were initially reactive for B. microti IgG by IFA, none was confirmed for B. microti IgG (zero estimate; 95% confidence interval, 0%-0.05%) and all were negative for B. microti DNA. None of the patient samples had B. microti IgG, IgM, or DNA. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not provide evidence for widespread exposure to B. microti in Australian blood donors at local theoretical risk, nor does it provide evidence of B. microti infection in Australian patients with clinically suspected babesiosis. Given that confirmed evidence of previous exposure to B. microti was not seen, these data suggest that transmission of this pathogen is currently uncommon in Australia and unlikely to pose a risk to transfusion safety at present.

Vector competence of Australian Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus for an epidemic strain of Zika virus.

BACKGROUND: Recent epidemics of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Pacific and the Americas have highlighted its potential as an emerging pathogen of global importance. Both Aedes (Ae.) aegypti and Ae. albopictus are known to transmit ZIKV but variable vector competence has been observed between mosquito populations from different geographical regions and different virus strains. Since Australia remains at risk of ZIKV introduction, we evaluated the vector competence of local Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for a Brazilian epidemic ZIKV strain. In addition, we evaluated the impact of daily temperature fluctuations around a mean of 28°C on ZIKV transmission and extrinsic incubation period. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Mosquitoes were orally challenged with a Brazilian ZIKV strain (8.8 log CCID50/ml) and maintained at either 28°C constant or fluctuating temperature conditions. At 3, 7 and 14 days post-infection (dpi), ZIKV RNA copies were quantified in mosquito bodies, as well as wings and legs, using qRT-PCR, while virus antigen in saliva (a proxy for transmission) was detected using a cell culture ELISA. Despite high body and disseminated infection rates in both vectors, the transmission rates of ZIKV in saliva of Ae. aegypti (50-60%) were significantly higher than in Ae. albopictus (10%) at 14 dpi. Both species supported a high viral load in bodies, with no significant differences between constant and fluctuating temperature conditions. However, a significant difference in viral load in wings and legs between species was observed, with higher titres in Ae. aegypti maintained at constant temperature conditions. For ZIKV transmission to occur in Ae. aegypti, a disseminated virus load threshold of 7.59 log10 copies had to be reached. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Australian Ae. aegypti are better able to transmit a Brazilian ZIKV strain than Ae. albopictus. The results are in agreement with the global consensus that Ae. aegypti is the major vector of ZIKV.

Chikungunya virus in Asia - Pacific: a systematic review.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that causes an acute febrile syndrome and severe, debilitating rheumatic disorders in humans that may persist for months. CHIKV's presence in Asia dates from at least 1954, but its epidemiological profile in the region remains poorly understood. We systematically reviewed CHIKV emergence, epidemiology, clinical features, atypical manifestations and distribution of virus genotypes, in 47 countries from South East Asia (SEA) and the Western Pacific Region (WPR) during the period 1954-2017. Following the Cochrane Collaboration guidelines, Pubmed and Scopus databases, surveillance reports available in the World Health Organisation (WHO) and government websites were systematically reviewed. Of the 3504 records identified, 461 were retained for data extraction. Although CHIKV has been circulating in Asia almost continuously since the 1950s, it has significantly expanded its geographic reach in the region from 2005 onwards. Most reports identified in the review originated from India. Although all ages and both sexes can be affected, younger children and the elderly are more prone to severe and occasionally fatal forms of the disease, with child fatalities recorded since 1963 from India. The most frequent clinical features identified were arthralgia, rash, fever and headache. Both the Asian and East-Central-South African (ECSA) genotypes circulate in SEA and WPR, with ECSA genotype now predominant. Our findings indicate a substantial but poorly documented burden of CHIKV infection in the Asia-Pacific region. An evidence-based consensus on typical clinical features of chikungunya could aid in enhanced diagnosis and improved surveillance of the disease.

Epidemic potential of Zika virus in Australia: implications for blood transfusion safety.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) is transfusion-transmissible. In Australia the primary vector, Aedes aegypti, is established in the north-east, such that local transmission is possible following importation of an index case, which has the potential to impact on blood transfusion safety and public health. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) to model the epidemic potential of ZIKV in Australian locations, compared this with the ecologically similar dengue viruses (DENV), and examined possible implications for blood transfusion safety. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Varying estimates of vector control efficiency and extrinsic incubation period, "best-case" and "worst-case" scenarios of monthly R 0 for ZIKV and DENV were modeled from 1996 to 2015 in 11 areas. We visualized the geographical distribution of blood donors in relation to areas with epidemic potential for ZIKV. RESULTS: Epidemic potential (R 0 > 1) existed for ZIKV and DENV throughout the study period in a number of locations in northern Australia (Cairns, Darwin, Rockhampton, Thursday Island, Townsville, and Brisbane) during the warmer months of the year. R 0 for DENV was greater than ZIKV and was broadly consistent with annual estimates in Cairns. Increased vector control efficiency markedly reduced the epidemic potential and shortened the season of local transmission. Australian locations that provide the greatest number of blood donors did not have epidemic potential for ZIKV. CONCLUSION: We estimate that areas of north-eastern Australia could sustain local transmission of ZIKV. This early contribution to understanding the epidemic potential of ZIKV may assist in the assessment and management of threats to blood transfusion safety.

Geostatistical mapping of the seasonal spread of under-reported dengue cases in Bangladesh.

Geographical mapping of dengue in resource-limited settings is crucial for targeting control interventions but is challenging due to the problem of zero-inflation because many cases are not reported. We developed a negative binomial generalised linear mixed effect model accounting for zero-inflation, spatial, and temporal random effects to investigate the spatial variation in monthly dengue cases in Bangladesh. The model was fitted to the district-level (64 districts) monthly reported dengue cases aggregated over the period 2000 to 2009 and Bayesian inference was performed using the integrated nested Laplace approximation. We found that mean monthly temperature and its interaction with mean monthly diurnal temperature range, lagged by two months were significantly associated with dengue incidence. Mean monthly rainfall at two months lag was positively associated with dengue incidence. Densely populated districts and districts bordering India or Myanmar had higher incidence than others. The model estimated that 92% of the annual dengue cases occurred between August and September. Cases were identified across the country with 94% in the capital Dhaka (located almost in the middle of the country). Less than half of the affected districts reported cases as observed from the surveillance data. The proportion reported varied by month with a higher proportion reported in high-incidence districts, but dropped towards the end of high transmission season.

Ross River virus in Australian blood donors: possible implications for blood transfusion safety.

BACKGROUND: Emerging transfusion-transmissible pathogens, including arboviruses such as West Nile, Zika, dengue, and Ross River viruses, are potential threats to transfusion safety. The most prevalent arbovirus in humans in Australia is Ross River virus (RRV); however, prevalence varies substantially around the country. Modeling estimated a yearly risk of 8 to 11 potentially RRV-viremic fresh blood components nationwide. This study aimed to measure the occurrence of RRV viremia among donors who donated at Australian collection centers located in areas with significant RRV transmission during one peak season. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Plasma samples were collected from donors (n = 7500) who donated at the selected collection centers during one peak season. Viral RNA was extracted from individual samples, and quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction was performed. RESULTS: Regions with the highest rates of RRV transmission were not areas where donor centers were located. We did not detect RRV RNA among 7500 donations collected at the selected centers, resulting in a zero risk estimate with a one-sided 95% confidence interval of 0 to 1 in 2019 donations. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the yearly risk of collecting a RRV-infected blood donation in Australia is low and is at the lower range of previous risk modeling. The majority of Australian donor centers were not in areas known to be at the highest risk for RRV transmission, which was not taken into account in previous models based on notification data. Therefore, we believe that the risk of RRV transfusion transmission in Australia is acceptably low and appropriately managed through existing risk management, including donation restrictions and recall policies.

A Bayesian approach for estimating under-reported dengue incidence with a focus on non-linear associations between climate and dengue in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Determining the relation between climate and dengue incidence is challenging due to under-reporting of disease and consequent biased incidence estimates. Non-linear associations between climate and incidence compound this. Here, we introduce a modelling framework to estimate dengue incidence from passive surveillance data while incorporating non-linear climate effects. We estimated the true number of cases per month using a Bayesian generalised linear model, developed in stages to adjust for under-reporting. A semi-parametric thin-plate spline approach was used to quantify non-linear climate effects. The approach was applied to data collected from the national dengue surveillance system of Bangladesh. The model estimated that only 2.8% (95% credible interval 2.7-2.8) of all cases in the capital Dhaka were reported through passive case reporting. The optimal mean monthly temperature for dengue transmission is 29℃ and average monthly rainfall above 15 mm decreases transmission. Our approach provides an estimate of true incidence and an understanding of the effects of temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh.